EL KABEIR can clinch being the Kentucky Derby (G1) point leader (with 175 points) if he wins today. But six other talented colts check out deny him that opportunity. Here’s how I begin to see the race: 2015 Wood Memorial Stakes
#1 TIZ SHEA D made his first start for Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott last time out in the Gotham (G3) and finished an excellent second behind #5 EL KABEIR. Has only two career starts and includes a to improve.
#2 TOASTING MASTER has finished off the board in three straight stakes races and is going to be facing tougher competition in this spot.
#3 LIEUTENANT COLONEL broke his maiden very first time out at Gulfstream, then ran last, a we’ll back more than 20 lengths, in the Gotham (G3). That last start was too poor for me to ignore.
#4 FROSTED has faced the starter six times, only has 1 win but did come in 2nd 4 time. In his last start, the Fountain Of Youth (G2), he faded badly to fourth after finding a perfect trip. Only reason to believe this son of TAPIT could rebound is that he has fired some fast workouts in preparation for this race.
#5 EL KABEIR won both Jerome (G3) and Gotham (G3) over this track and showed a new dimension last time out when idling towards the back of the field before creating a big run in the stretch to win easily. Appears like usually the one to beat.
#6 DAREDEVIL has only been around two turns once and that has been when he finished eleventh in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1). He was near an incredible pace that day, while racing five and six wide on both turns, so while I’m prepared to excuse that dull effort, he may be better today.
#7 TENCENDUR finished off the board behind #5 EL KABEIR in both Withers (G3) and the Gotham (G3). Minor award possibility, if that.